Friday’s 01-04-19
lakegregoryweather.com forecast
Good Morning..
….For today. We will have mostly clear skies across SoCal. There is no fog to be found in SoCal even at the Coast. Most areas have switched from an offshore flow last night, to an onshore flow as of early this morning. This is indicative of the change in our weather that is coming. Additionally temperatures around the Crestline and Lake Arrowhead areas reached their peak much earlier than usual around 3am, then as the wind changed the temps began to warm on a SW flow….
…Tomorrow, we will start the day with mostly clear skies. High clouds will build into the area with a chance for light high based rain/snow showers by early afternoon….
…. This is where things get tricky….
… As the Cold Core Low moves South along the West Coast Saturday, bringing showers to the IE by Saturday night through Sunday morning. The Subtropical Jet is pushing warm air and moisture, North, from off of Baja. I have been watching this over the last few days as it has slowly progressed further North on the weather maps each day. The models are beginning to include this feature in the latest forecast maps as of this morning….
…. If this Subtropical Jet does blend with the Low from the North, we will see higher rainfall totals especially along the South and West facing slopes, as well as higher snow levels locally. As of this morning, the NWS is calling for snow levels starting at or about the 4500-5000′ level, then slowly rising to around the 5500′ level by late Saturday night. Then back down to around 5000′ as the Northern part of the system pushes through Sunday morning….
…. This anomalous flow from the South West has been lurking for several weeks. It has already brought extra moisture to previous systems from the North in weeks past. Kind of an El Nino feature that will continue to aid in bringing additional moisture to our typical Winter systems. …
….Rainfall totals from this next system will be from .50-1.50″ with the highest amounts along the Rim. Snow accumulations above the 6000′ level will be from 2-6″ with the most at the higher elevations. From 4500-5500′, snow accumulations will be from 0-2″ expected. Below the 6000′ elevation, a mix of rain and snow is expected. One more item, due to the possible mix of warm and cold air expected late Saturday night/ early Sunday morning, as always there will be a chance for a Thunderstorm to develop that will push cold air much lower adding a chance for hail and or snow to the 4000′ level….
…On the long range outlook, it looks like we will be in a pattern of areas of Low pressure pushing through the West Coast about every ~72 hours. So our next system should arrive mid week next week. This is also expected to be warmer and wetter as the Subtropical Jet feeds additional moisture from the Tropics. RC
Have a great day and thanks for joining me @ www.lakegregoryweather.com , Oh, and be sure to check out the website for live webcams from around the area, and my weather station at the South side of lake Gregory, and other weather stuff @ www.lakegregoryweather.com
January’s average High and Low temperatures for this day:
HIGH-44*, LOW-29*. RECORD LOW-10*-1949, HIGH-62*-1994.
Yesterday’s High and Low temperatures were:
Crestline-45/24*, Twin Peaks-44/34*, N-Lake Arrowhead-48/39*, Running Springs-48/39*, GVL-51*/27*, Big Bear-48/15*, San Bernardino-68/43*.
Forecast Temperatures for the next three days:
Crestline,Twin Peaks, Lake Arrowhead
Fri-50-55*/28-35*, Sat-38-45*/28-34*, Sun-34-39*/30-36*, Mon-48-52*/36-40*.
Running Springs, Arrowbear:
Fri-45-50*/25-32*, Sat-30-36*/26-33*, Sun-32-36*/24-28*
Big Bear, Green Valley Lake:
Fri-42-47*/22-28*, Sat-33-38*/16-24*, Sun-26-32*/26-32*.
San Bernardino:
Fri-65-69*/40-46*, Sat-57-64*/45-50*, Sun-55-60*/42-45*.
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