Ron Chalfant
Saturday-11-10-18
Today’s lakegregoryweather.com
Forecast for Crestline, Twin Peaks, Lake Arrowhead and the San Bernardino Mountains.
Good Morning.
Thoughts and prayers go out to all affected by the recent fires in California.
Today the winds will change to the Sw for a brief period. This will bring drift smoke from the LA fires close to our area so don’t be surprised if you smell smoke locally, later today.
Temperatures overnight got pretty cold in most areas as expected. Big Bear had a low of 18* at the Airport and I had 26* at my weather station at the south shore of Lake Gregory. Peak winds yesterday ran from 10-15 mph in some areas and up to 57mph at Paivika Ridge in Crestline. My peak gust was 24mph.
So for today, light and variable winds turning to the South West today through this evening. Clear skies and cool temperatures will be the Forecast for today. A Ridge of High pressure will remain in place to our West over the Pacific for the next five days or so. This will keep the jet stream running from the North West to the South East, East of our area. However, as waves of energy pass through to our East, we will see surface pressures in the Great Basin rising and falling which will alternate the winds locally from the SW to the NE. Tomorrow morning we will again return to a fairly strong offshore pressure gradient across the region. Tonopah will be around 1030mbs and San Diego will be at~1016mbs. This will again be a recipe for strong Santa Ana winds across SoCal. Additionally, cold air advection from the Great Basin will continue to bring in cold day and night time temperatures to the upper elevations above 4000′.
RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER will remain in place through Tuesday as winds and humidity levels will be in the critical area. So be very careful with all fire or outdoor welding or grinding etc. It only takes a spark as in Paradise California which the whole town was burned to the ground by a careless camper.
Something else to keep in mind. If there is an evacuation order for the area where you are, get out as quickly as possible. Again in the Paradise fire up North, 5 people were found burned up in their cars because they couldn’t get out fast enough.
Now for something to look forward to, on the long range crystal ball outlook, there is hope on the horizon. The GFS model forecast is favoring a pattern change for the West. On or about the 20th to the 25th, they are showing a chance for rain into SoCal and the West. I know, I’ve said this before and it didn’t happen, but remember this is a crystal ball outlook. Anything past 3-5days is in that realm. Enjoy the fine mountain weather and thank you for joining me this morning over a hot cup of java! RC
November’s average High and Low temperatures for this day:
HIGH-54*, LOW-35*. RECORD LOW-26*-1998, HIGH-69*-1955.
Yesterday’s High and Low temperatures were:
Crestline-55/26*, Twin Peaks-51/40*, N-Lake Arrowhead-53/27*, Running Springs-56/38*, Airport in Big Bear-52/18*, San Bernardino-75/48*.
Forecast Temperatures for the next three days:
Crestline,Twin Peaks, Lake Arrowhead
Sat-55-62*/29-36*, Sun-54-62*/28-36*, Mon-55-62*/29-36*.
Running Springs, Arrowbear:
Sat-54-58*/28-35*, Sun-50-55*/27-35*, Mon-50-55*/27-34*.
Big Bear, Green Valley Lake:
Sat-54-59*/20-28*, Sun-44-49*/18-28*, Mon-43-50*/18-28*.
San Bernardino:
Sat-75-80*/40-48*, Sun-75-80*/43-50*, Mon=73-77*/40-48*.
Thank you for joining me @ lakegregoryweather.com, or on Facebook @ Lake Gregory Weather Group, Rim Weather, or, San Bernardino Mountains.
On another note, there is a new source for local news that can be found at, mountainreporter.com
If you are interested in buying a rain gauge or any other weather instruments, click on the Ambient weather graphic toward the bottom of this page to access their website.
Below is a graphic of the smoke plume for this afternoon.